📚Recommended reading list
Here are some books that are worth reading. They can provide you with a perspective of how we got here and what it will take to get us out of the predicament we arein today.
‘Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America,’ by Heather Cox Richardson
If you aren't familiar with Heather Cox Richardson, she's a professor of American history and a democracy warrior. I read her blog, “Letters From an American,” every day. I highly recommend that you subscribe if you're looking to better understand current events in a historical context. I also highly recommend her book, "Democracy Awakening. Notes on the State of America." It is an insightful read. Here is the Amazon description of the book:
At a time when the very foundations of democracy seem under threat, the lessons of the past offer a roadmap for navigating a moment of political crisis. In Democracy Awakening, acclaimed historian Heather Cox Richardson delves into the tumultuous journey of American democracy, revealing how the roots of Donald Trump’s “authoritarian experiment” can be traced back through the earliest days of the republic. She examines the historical forces that have led to the current political climate, showing how modern conservatism has preyed upon a disaffected population, weaponizing language and promoting false history to consolidate power.
With remarkable clarity and the same accessible voice that brings millions of readers to her newsletter, Letters from an American, Richardson wrangles a chaotic news feed into a coherent story that singles out what we should pay attention to and what possible paths lie ahead. Her command of history and trademark plainspoken prose allow her to pivot effortlessly from the Founders to the abolitionists to Reconstruction to Nixon to the January 6 insurrection, highlighting the political legacies of the New Deal, the lingering fears of socialism, the death of the liberal consensus, and the birth of “movement conservatism.”
An essential read for anyone concerned about the state of America, Democracy Awakening is more than a history book; it’s a call to action. Richardson reminds us that democracy is not a static institution but a living, evolving process that requires constant vigilance and participation from all of us. This powerful testament to the resilience of democratic ideals shows how we, as a nation, can take the lessons of the past to address today’s challenges and secure a more just and equitable future.
‘The Politics Industry: How Political Innovation Can Break Partisan Gridlock and Save Our Democracy,’ by Katherine M. Gehl and Michael E. Porter
This is a fantastic resource that I have quoted extensively throughout this project. I highly recommend reading “The Politics Industry: How Political Innovation Can Break Partisan Gridlock and Save our Democracy” to learn more about the strategy that Gehl, the founder of the Institute for Political Innovation, has developed to help "unrig" the system. Prior to founding IPI, Katherine was CEO of Gehl Foods, a leading producer of aseptic dairy products with reported sales of nearly $250 million until its sale in 2015. Michael E. Porter is the Bishop William Lawrence University Professor at Harvard Business School. They have combined their interests and talents in this primer on the root causes of system failure in what they call "the politics industry and its Five Competitive Forces.”
They pose six substantive questions which go to the heart of the beast:
Why is the United States innovative in so many areas, but not in politics?
Why is it normal to have limited — and often disappointing — choices at the ballot box?
Why doesn't Washington, D.C., get anything done?
Why does an independent candidate rarely stand a chance of getting elected?
What outcomes should we expect from an optimally functioning political system?
And, most importantly, what can we do to start achieving those great outcomes?
The political industrial complex serves the needs and demands of the two-party duopoly and not the American people. Gehl and Porter have plenty of creative and nonpartisan suggestions for breaking gridlock in D.C., such as making representatives accountable and responsive to the people by running a single-primary ballot; instituting federal term limits; and passing a constitutional amendment against partisan gerrymandering. This is a great analysis of how the U.S. political system actually operates like a competitive business, a reality that any solutions must take into account. They identify political innovations that have already been tried and present "guiding principles for electoral innovation," such as keep it cross-partisan, localize, and build winning coalitions. They conclude with a persuasive call for investments in political innovation.
Please read it!
‘The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny,’ by Neil Howe and William Strauss
I also recommend reading the second book published by Neil Howe & William Strauss, “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny.” The book is based upon their “Generational Theory.” I first heard about the book on a podcast where the headline stated that the authors predicted the rise of Trump 25 years ago.
That clickbait got my attention, although they didn’t exactly predict the rise of Trump.
But, through a study of hundreds of years of history, they did predict back in 1997 that America would hit a great crisis climaxing around 2020 — and that up next is a millennial vs. boomer standoff that will usher in a new world order. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 20-25 years, in which a new social, political and economic climate (mood) exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years, although some saecula have lasted longer).
The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery. During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis. Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their 1991 book “Generations,” which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584. In The Fourth Turning, the authors expanded the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras to describe the history of the United States, including the 13 colonies and their British antecedents. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries. If you’d prefer to watch a video before diving into the book to see if it resonates, this one shows the cycles in an easy to digest format.
As we are now squarely in the “fourth turning” I am convinced the only way to ensure a “soft landing” as we face a lot of uncertainty is to have the right leaders in positions of power to drive common sense policies to lead us out of this crisis.
‘The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End,’ by Neil Howe
Amazon summarizes this best:
Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about 25 years. The last of these eras—the fourth turning—was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.
Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived. And so Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around us—the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war—will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America’s next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill.
Illuminating, sobering, yet ultimately empowering, The Fourth Turning Is Here takes you back into history and deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis, explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we’ll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet these challenges head-on.
‘The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization,’ by Peter Zeihan
Amazon summarizes this fantastic book as follows:
2019 was the last great year for the world economy.
For generations, everything has been getting faster, better, and cheaper. Finally, we reached the point that almost anything you could ever want could be sent to your home within days - even hours - of when you decided you wanted it.
America made that happen, but now America has lost interest in keeping it going.
Globe-spanning supply chains are only possible with the protection of the U.S. Navy. The American dollar underpins internationalized energy and financial markets. Complex, innovative industries were created to satisfy American consumers. American security policy forced warring nations to lay down their arms. Billions of people have been fed and educated as the American-led trade system spread across the globe.
All of this was artificial. All this was temporary. All this is ending.
In The End of the World is Just the Beginning, author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan maps out the next world: a world where countries or regions will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging.
The list of countries that make it all work is smaller than you think. Which means everything about our interconnected world - from how we manufacture products, to how we grow food, to how we keep the lights on, to how we shuttle stuff about, to how we pay for it all - is about to change.
A world ending. A world beginning. Zeihan brings readers along for an illuminating (and a bit terrifying) ride packed with foresight, wit, and his trademark irreverence.
‘Contract to Unite America: Ten Reforms to Reclaim Our Republic,’ by Neil Simon
As an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, Neal Simon witnessed the destructive nature of modern American politics. He experienced firsthand the perverse incentives that push candidates and lawmakers to ideological extremes, watching as party leaders resisted pragmatic solutions to our nation’s problems. He saw politicians prioritize loyalty to their party bases over progress for the American people.
George Washington said:
The alternate domination of one faction over another, natural to party dissension … is itself a frightful despotism.
In “Contract to Unite America: Ten Reforms to Reclaim Our Republic,” Simon makes the case that Washington’s nightmare has been realized. Despite his warning about the negative effects of party loyalties, the government has become paralyzed by partisanship, allowing national challenges to go unaddressed.
In this comprehensive analysis of U.S. politics, Simon shows how degradations in party primaries, campaign finances and election rules have caused American self-government to collapse into gridlock and divisiveness. However, the American promise is so much greater. As the first president noted in his famed address, “The basis of our political systems is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government.”
Capitalizing on personal insight derived from Simon’s political campaign along with extensive research, “Contract to Unite America” provides specific, practical solutions for an improved government and a better tomorrow."
In his book, Simon outlines some of the realities we face today:
Less than 10% of congressional general elections are considered competitive. The results of the other 90% of races are determined in party primaries by less than 20% of registered voters.
In 2014, four years after the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United, .001% of the population donated 29% of all political contributions!
Incumbents get $9 in special-interest money for every dollar that goes to a challenger!
Congressional approval is just 18%.
Over the past 70 years, the share of members of Congress who are moderates has fallen from 60% to 12%. Over the same period, the share of salient issues deadlocked in Congress has risen from about one in four to three in four. The number of bills passed per congressional session has declined by half over the past 40 years.
Virtually 0% of policy changes approved by Congress benefit the average American.
He outlines 10 measures that, if enacted, would level the playing field:
Open Primaries Act: Every publicly financed election, including primary elections, would be open to all registered voters, regardless of political affiliation.
Educated Electorate Act: A nonpartisan Federal Debate Commission would be created to ensure the fairness and caliber of presidential and congressional election debates.
Term Limits Constitutional Amendment: Members of the House of Representatives would be limited to three terms of two years each. Members of the Senate would be limited to two terms of years each.
Elections Transparency Act: For any contribution of $100 or more to any candidate, party or political entity, the donor' identity must be disclosed publicly.
Campaign Finance Constitutional Amendment: Government may distinguish between corporations and people, and Congress and States can apply reasonable limits on campaign spending.
Ballot Access Act: To be included on a ballot, all candidates would be subject to identical requirements, which can not exceed 5,000 signatures on a petition.
Fair Districts Act: Each state would form an independent commission responsible for redistricting. Political affiliation would no longer be allowed as considerations when drawing districts.
Fair Representation Act: Ranked-choice voting would be used in federal elections, and states with more than one member in the House would create multimember districts of up to five members.
Congressional rules: Procedures in the House and Senate would be altered to reduce the power of ideological fringes and encourage bipartisan legislation and cooperation.
Creating a culture of unity: We call on our next president to form a bipartisan administration, for Congress to sign a civility pledge, for Americans to participate in national service and for our schools to revive civics education.
Sounds like a great start to me! Read the book.
‘Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy,’ by Rachel Kleinfeld
Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she researches issues of rule of law, security, and governance in democracies experiencing polarization, violence, and other structural problems.
She writes in “Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy” that
American democracy is at a dangerous inflection point. The moment requires a step-change in strategy and support. Without such momentum, the country faces a democratic setback potentially as serious as the ones already occurring in India and Hungary (both now ranked only “partially free” by Freedom House) and the nearly one-hundred-year reversal that occurred following America’s Reconstruction era.
Many Americans view this moment with concern, but their worry is measured: America’s system is creaky, but the world’s oldest democracy has strong institutions and will pull through.
However, since the end of the Cold War, most democratic failure globally has been caused by elected governments using legal methods, such as gerrymandering and technical rule changes, to derail democracy. Their destructions of their own democracies have been supported by pluralities or majorities of their citizenries, whose polarization leads them to back policies that harm democracy to ensure their side prevails. America is on precisely this path.
This is an important document to help further build a foundation.
‘Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail,’ by Ray Dalio
I recommend reading “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail,” the latest book by Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world). It narrates the rise and fall of empires, countries, and civilizations, and how those cycles changed the world order. One thing that Dalio emphasizes is the fact that social-economic inequalities are the leading indicator of the collapse of a country. They fuel anger, division and violence.
The book discusses how a country gains power when it encounters favorable economic and social conditions that enable the development of its economy and military. Such a country directs the world order once it becomes more powerful than all the other countries (demonstrated by winning a war). Once the country peaks, the population gets lazy. It borrows money instead of working hard. The country loses its economic and military edge. It becomes decadent. The shift from one world order to another happens when a new rising power becomes stronger than the decaying one. The decaying power often engages and loses a war against the rising power. The whole cycle starts again.
Dalio finishes his book by giving a picture of the current situation in America and China because, as he sees it, the American world order is ending, and the Chinese world order is beginning.
The U.S. ticks all the boxes of a fast-declining power, namely:
High debt.
Lots of money printing.
Internal conflicts.
Huge political and value gaps.
Populism.
Debt contracted to maintain lifestyle instead of investing.
Overextended army.
Weakening character.
Huge social-economic inequalities.
Bad research and educational infrastructures.
The only thing the U.S. has going, in his view, is innovation and tech. It’s still a leading power, but China is quickly catching up. As for China, the indicators are rather positive:
Dynamic economy.
Low debt.
Inventive, educated and resourceful population.
Strengthening of the military.
Low social-economic inequalities.
Productivity.
Competitiveness.
Good research and education infrastructures.
Again, if you prefer a video primer before investing the time in reading the book, here you go:
‘The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower,’ by Michael Pillbury
If you want to learn about China's hidden strategy from a leading China expert, read Michael Pillbury's book "The Hundred-Year Marathon. China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower."
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, “The Hundred-Year Marathon” reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the hawks in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. “The Hundred-Year Marathon” is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the 21st century.
Pillsbury discussed the book and the level of thinking in Washington about China at the National Conservatism Conference II in 2021.
‘No Room for Small Dreams: Courage, Imagination, and the Making of Modern Israel,’ by Shimon Peres
I highly encourage you to read Shimon Peres' book "No Room for Small Dreams: Courage, Imagination, and the Making of Modern Israel" because it provides an interesting insight on the history of the modern state of Israel from one of its greatest statesmen, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres. But it is also an inspiring book on leadership. If you read nothing else, read this.
We need a generation that sees leadership as a noble cause defined not by personal ambition, but by morality and a call to service. We need leaders who believe that the world can be changed not by killing and shooting, but by creating and competing. Leaders who prefer to be controversial for the right reasons, rather than popular for the wrong ones. Leaders who use their imagination more than their memory.
I am filled with hope because I believe we have that generation at hand walking the earth at this very moment. To the young people of the world, I hope that you will take to heart what David Ben Gurion taught me. It was from him I learned that the vision of the future could shape the agenda for the present. That one can overcome obstacles by dint of faith. That there is nothing more responsible than to take risks today for the sake of tomorrow's chance. That justice’s birth requires the pain of labor. Success requires the pain of failure. I don't expect you to take the word of an old man. If I have earned the title of expert, it is only on what was. There is no expert on what will be. And yet without knowing the future, I remain a man full of hope. Hope for peace. ...
Every once in a while, someone will ask me to look back on my career and identify the achievement in my life of which I am [most] proud. I respond by telling them the story of a great painter who was once approached by an admirer of his art. “Which of your paintings do you consider your most beautiful? the man asked. The painter looked up at the man, then turned his gaze toward a large blank canvas resting on an easel in the corner of the room. “The one I will paint tomorrow,” he replied. My answer is the same.