Ch 4.4 | 🥊The rematch nobody wants

The leaders of both parties are basically loathed by half the people who are supposed to vote for them, and yet we're facing a re-run of 2020, something the vast majority of voters don't want.

America needs a backup plan for the 2024 presidential election. So far, the runup to campaign season is unfolding like a disaster movie in slow motion.

We have Donald Trump, hellbent on vengeance, back in the media spotlight where he thrives, while Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, inadvertently helped Trump win the GOP nomination by giving supporters charges to rally against.

Democrats have gleefully taken on Trump, who they assume is eminently beatable despite having lost to him once and barely squeaking by a second time — and despite pinning all their hopes on Joe Biden, a flawed candidate himself.

Therefore, we have the American people facing the prospect of choosing, for a second time, between two candidates they don’t like — candidates intent on ignoring the many voters who appreciate old-fashioned things like cooperation and problem solving.

If anyone needed further proof that our two-party system is in crisis, a Trump vs. Biden rematch is it. Putting all our eggs in the Biden basket is an unacceptable gamble when losing would mean the second coming of Trump.

As USA Today said:

Biden, for all his strengths, has a dangerously low approval rating, is facing severe headwinds from inflation and a potential recession, has one of the least popular vice presidents of the past century and seems unwilling to stand up to the gravitational forces pulling him leftward.

And unless we "unrig" the system, we may not even have primaries in the future. (Even close, low-turnout primaries are better than none.)

Were you aware that when RFK Jr. announced his candidacy for president he asked to debate Biden? But the Democratic National Committee coalesced around the president, announcing it did not plan to hold any debates for the nomination. None! Worse yet, it appears Biden never considered replacing his running mate. And while the Republican Party did have multiple debates, Trump did bother to participate and faced no repercussions for that decision.

Trump told John Catsimatidis, host of the “Cats & Cosby Show” on WABC 770:

I’m leading by 40 points. A lot of people say, “Why would you do a debate when you have people at 2 and 3 and 15 and 14[percent]?”

Trump told Catsimatidis, referring to former Reagan White House aide Frederick Ryan Jr.:

“The publisher of the Washington Post is the chairman of the Reagan library. And that’s where one of the debates would be. I don’t want to be there.”

Trump continued:

When you’re way up, you don’t do debates.

Unfortunately for democracy, Trump was right. He skipped all the debates and still handily won the nomination — thanks to the GOP enabling him. Brett Stephens wrote in August 2023:

Even at this point, it may be too late to change the fundamental dynamic of the Republican race, particularly since every fresh criminal indictment strengthens Trump’s political grip and advances his argument that he’s the victim of a deep-state conspiracy.

But if the Paul Ryans of the conservative world want to make a compelling case against Trump, it can’t be that he’s unelectable. It’s that he’s irredeemable. It’s that he brought shame to the party of Lincoln; that he violated his oath to the Constitution; that he traduced every value Republicans once claimed to stand for; and that they will not support him if he is the Republican nominee.

That may not keep Trump from the nomination or even the presidency. But on any road to redemption, the starting point has to be the truth, most of all when it’s hard.

Given all the challenges that we face, we must act and act soon. But, absent a groundswell of tens of millions of voters to coalesce in the “middle,” we will continue to perpetuate a political standoff that feels like Russian roulette to me. And even if those millions did support a third presidential candidate, our electoral system makes it virtually impossible for such a person to actually win the race.

In November 2023, Ray Dalio left some room for optimism in his post "US Political Conflict: The Odds of Smart Bipartisan Leadership Are Rising."

The United States has become terribly split by big gaps in incomes, opportunities, and values that have led to political extremism that is reminiscent of the 1930-45 clashes between fascists and communists. This extremism has led to irreconcilable differences, dysfunctional government, and win-at-all-cost domestic power struggles that could lead to some sort of civil war. At the same time, the United States faces great challenges arising from 1) large and rapidly rising government debt that has led to the decreasing value of money (i.e., inflation), 2) great internal and political conflicts over how to deal with the large income, opportunity, and values gaps, 3) external conflicts over how the new world order should work, 4) costly and damaging climate changes, and 5) revolutionary changes in technologies that can either help or hurt us. All these challenges need to be well managed. For these reasons, I believe that next year's US elections will be the most important in our lifetimes because their results will lead to either a) dysfunctional fighting that will take us over the edge or b) smart bipartisan leadership that will manage these challenges capably.

I would love nothing more than to believe that Dalio is right. In my perfect world, I would have loved to see Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips battle for the presidency this year. It would give me renewed hope for America. Unfortunately, my dream did not materialize. It's sad, because as we look for a catalyst that could galvanize the electorate, I see two topics that could sway "single issue" voters and shift our trajectory towards the middle: abortion and the Israel-Hamas war. These two issues are creating gravitational forces drawing the electorate to the center from different poles. 

For Republicans, abortion is drawing conservatives closer to the center as they reject the extreme anti-abortion laws being enacted by the extremes at the right. For Democrats, the antisemitism that has erupted in response to Hamas' terrorist attack is drawing liberals away from the extreme progressive left and towards the center.

We couldn't ask for a more opportune time. This is just what we need to effectuate change. But sadly, as a result of our closed primary system combined and the resulting low voter turnout in primaries, we have the rematch no one wants!